Election Day Reflections

I sent this letter out initially in the midst of Election Day.  There obviously was a lot of energy in the air. Anticipation runs high, and the headlines were filled with speculation on what the choices mean for the markets. But here’s the perspective we can hold: while political outcomes may feel momentous, they rarely dictate the path of long-term investments.

Here are some helpful reminders as we continue to move through this election cycle:

Election outcomes and stock market outcomes are not correlated.

Election results and market returns are often far less connected than the news might suggest. For example, research by Fidelity has shown that, over time, the S&P 500 has performed comparably under both Democratic and Republican administrations—regardless of who held Congress. Since 1976, every market sector has had periods of growth during both Democratic and Republican terms. Across election cycles since 1976, each sector has performed well at times, regardless of which party holds the White House.  The markets, it seems, march to a rhythm of their own.

Cause and effect in the markets is rarely direct.

During election seasons, it’s tempting to act on predictions about how new socioeconomic policies might influence the markets. However, even the most astute commentators cannot reliably forecast market reactions to political shifts. Financial writer for Forbes John Jennings compares this to scientists who understand why volcanoes occur but cannot predict each eruption. In markets, just as in nature, the ability to explain an event is different from the ability to foresee it.

Elections come and go; your investments have a much longer time horizon.

We may vote for a president every four years, but your portfolio is designed to endure and grow over decades. Data spanning nearly a century, illustrated by Dimensional Fund Advisors, shows that U.S. equities have consistently trended upward, no matter which party was in power. Staying the course remains the most effective path forward for reaching your long-term goals.

So as the election buzz fills the air, know that your investments are positioned for resilience. Let’s keep our sights on the horizon, with our long-term objectives leading the way.

Steady onward.

 

Q4 Letter To Clients

As we reflect on the past quarter, I want to emphasize our commitment to your overall financial well-being. This not only includes helping you plan for your goals but also protecting the assets you’ve worked so hard to build. Our focus this quarter is centered on enhancing your cybersecurity protection. With cyber threats increasing globally, protecting your personal and financial information has never been more critical. According to a recent study, cyberattacks have increased by 125% over the past year, and 64% of individuals have experienced some form of a data breach.  In 2023 alone, there were over 1.8 billion data breaches globally, with financial accounts being a key target. The Federal Trade Commission reports that identity theft cases grew by 15% last year, emphasizing the need for vigilance.

Given this rise, we’re dedicating more resources to ensuring your financial data is secure, and we strongly recommend you take steps to safeguard your online information. To assist with this, we are hosting a webinar this month on proactive cybersecurity strategies tailored for our clients. Please join us on October 23 at 12pm -1pm EST to learn more about how to protect yourself and your family.  Registration is required and can be found here.

In terms of market performance, the past quarter has seen mixed movements across key asset classes. Equities rallied early in the quarter due to continued optimism around cooling inflation and central bank policies, though rising interest rates brought some volatility by quarter’s end. Meanwhile, bonds saw more stability as yields increased, providing attractive opportunities for income-focused portfolios. In the alternative asset space, real estate has faced headwinds with higher borrowing costs, while commodities have seen strength due to geopolitical tensions and supply chain pressures.

As always, we take a holistic approach to your financial plan, ensuring that market shifts are viewed through the lens of your long-term life goals. Market movements will come and go, but our focus remains on helping you achieve financial peace of mind and purpose-driven financial life planning. We are here to guide you through each phase, adapting strategies as needed to support your goals and priorities.

We are here to support you and answer any questions you may have.

How to Live Like a Local…in Paris

How to Live Like a Local in Paris, France: A Financial Planner’s Guide to Adventure

Paris, the City of Light, is known for its world-class art, cuisine, and culture. But to truly experience the magic of Paris, you need to live like a local. Not only does this provide a more authentic experience, but it can also be more financially sustainable, which is a priority for our financial planning clients. Here’s a guide to living like a local in Paris with a touch of adventure, while keeping your budget in check.

Navigate Paris Like a Parisian

One of the best ways to explore Paris is on foot or by using public transportation. Parisians often walk or bike around the city, especially in pedestrian-friendly areas like Le Marais or the Latin Quarter. Renting a Vélib’ bike is a great option for getting around efficiently and affordably. For longer journeys, the Paris Metro is fast, cheap, and easy to navigate. A weekly or monthly Navigo pass can save you money compared to purchasing individual tickets.

Explore the Neighborhoods Beyond the Tourist Spots

While the Eiffel Tower and Louvre are iconic, living like a local means venturing into Paris’s unique neighborhoods. Montmartre offers cobblestone streets, art galleries, and an authentic bohemian atmosphere. Definitely visit the Sacré-Cœur Basilica at the top of Montmarte and take the short tram from the front steps down to a delicious streetside crepe.  My family loved this excursion!  Le Marais, with its narrow medieval streets, is home to fashionable boutiques, quaint cafés, and hidden courtyards. Canal Saint-Martin is a favorite among Parisians for picnics and strolls along the water.

For a true local experience, spend time in lesser-known districts like Belleville, known for its vibrant street art and multicultural food scene, or the 11th arrondissement, where you’ll find affordable restaurants and a relaxed, authentic vibe.

Shop at Local Markets

One of the most enjoyable ways to live like a Parisian is by shopping at local markets. Rue Mouffetard, in the Latin Quarter, is a historic market street with fresh produce, cheeses, and bread. Marché d’Aligre in the 12th arrondissement is a bustling market where you can find everything from gourmet foods to second-hand treasures.

Shopping at markets not only supports local businesses but also offers a budget-friendly way to enjoy the best of French cuisine. Grab some fresh baguettes, cheese, and a bottle of wine for a perfect Parisian picnic in one of the city’s many parks.  The amount of Fromageries in Paris will make a cheese lover’s heart melt!

Enjoy the Green Spaces

Paris is home to beautiful parks and gardens where locals spend their weekends relaxing. The Jardin du Luxembourg is a favorite for its tranquil atmosphere and stunning landscapes. For something off the beaten path, visit Parc des Buttes-Chaumont in the 19th arrondissement, one of Paris’s largest parks, complete with waterfalls, cliffs, and stunning views of the city. Parc Monceau in the 8th arrondissement is another gem, offering a peaceful retreat surrounded by elegant townhouses.

Eat Like a Parisian

Dining in Paris can be pricey, but there are ways to eat like a local without overspending. Skip the tourist traps and head to neighborhood bistros and brasseries where locals dine. For an authentic Parisian experience, visit a fromagerie (cheese shop) and boulangerie (bakery) to assemble your own meal. Enjoy a simple, yet delicious picnic by the Seine or in one of Paris’s parks.

For those looking to experience Paris’s diverse culinary scene, explore the affordable eateries in neighborhoods like Belleville or the 10th arrondissement, where you’ll find cuisines from around the world. Don’t forget to visit the pâtisseries (pastry shops) to treat yourself to a croissant or pain au chocolat.

Take Advantage of Free Cultural Attractions

Many of Paris’s most famous museums offer free entry on the first Sunday of every month, including the Louvre and Musée d’Orsay (one of my favs). Additionally, some of the city’s most beautiful landmarks, like Notre-Dame and Sacré-Cœur, are free to visit. Wander the streets of the historic neighborhoods like Le Marais and the Latin Quarter, soaking in the city’s architecture and charm without spending a euro.

Another way to experience local culture is by attending free events. From outdoor film screenings in the summer to seasonal festivals, Paris offers numerous opportunities for entertainment that won’t strain your budget.

Live Like a Local, Plan Like a Pro

Living like a local in Paris means embracing the city’s slower pace, savoring simple pleasures, and avoiding the touristy spots in favor of authentic experiences. As financial planners, we understand that your travel adventures shouldn’t come at the expense of your financial well-being. By making smart choices, from using public transportation to shopping at local markets, you can enjoy the best of Paris without breaking the bank.

Financial Tips for Adventurous Paris Travelers
  • Set a Daily Budget: Paris can be expensive if you’re not mindful of your spending. Set a daily budget for meals, transportation, and activities to stay on track.
  • Accommodation: Consider staying in short-term rentals or chambres d’hôtes (bed and breakfasts) instead of pricey hotels. This also gives you the chance to live in authentic Parisian neighborhoods.
  • Local Banking Options: If staying for a longer period, consider opening a local bank account to avoid foreign transaction fees.
  • Use Public Transport: The Navigo pass is cost-effective for public transport, and Vélib’ bikes are an affordable, fun way to explore the city.

By following these tips, you can experience Paris like a local and make your trip both memorable and financially smart. Paris is a city for dreamers and adventurers alike, and with the right approach, you can explore its wonders without overspending.

What Does Financial Independence Mean to You?

According to a recent poll of 2,000 U.S. adults, “financial independence” equates to earning $94,000 per year, or about $20,000 more than the median income in 2023.

Some folks might feel like they’re just a promotion or two away from achieving that kind of independence. Others might not feel like $94,000 isn’t enough to feel truly free. And still others might wonder how they’d ever spend that much money in the first place.

 That’s because true financial independence isn’t a number. So if it’s not a number, then what is financial independence?   

It’s feeling confident enough in your money to do things that will improve your Return on Life, such as:

1. Spend without worrying

In our experience, it’s true that money can’t buy happiness. But it’s also true that being able to treat yourself and your family without worrying about paying your credit card bill at the end of the month is a pretty great feeling as well.

No matter how much you’re earning, setting a monthly spending budget can help you cover your necessities, contributes to your retirement goals, and have a little fun along the way. A budget can also help you plan ahead for responsible “big ticket” splurges, like a dream vacation or adding a pool to the backyard.

2. Enrich your children

Unless your kids love spending a lot of time at the local library, enrichment isn’t free. According to Lending Tree, parents spent an average of $731 per child per year on extracurriculars. You might spend thousands of dollars every year on a good athlete or ballerina through their teenage years … which is when the bills really start rolling in. The average cost of a year of college for the 2023-24 school year is $10,662 at an in-state public school, and $42,162 at a private school. This is for tuition ONLY…room and board will be in addition, and if you haven’t noticed, rent cost is much higher now than it used to be!

Parents might not feel truly free until they’ve passed that big COLLEGE goal until the last payment has been made. But with that goal in sight, we can help you start planning a combination of savings and investments that will reduce some of the sticker shock when the time comes. And by including some of your children’s activities in your budgeting and long-term plans, you might be able to sign them up for a few extra classes that round out their development or allow them to dig more deeply into their passions.

3. Change careers

Once upon a time, your high school guidance counselor might have challenged you to imagine what you’d do for a job if you didn’t need money. Setting aside your teenage dreams of being a rock singer or astronaut, do you have the means to make that switch right now?

Well, if money isn’t stopping you, then what is?  Is it time to re-train and re-tool for Career 2.0 or 3.0?

Taking a lower-paying job at a company or charitable organization that does work you admire could give you an opportunity to put your professional skills to their highest uses. Rather than trying to climb a ladder or earn a bigger paycheck, you can focus on the mission at hand and the people and causes you’ll be impacting.

4. Retire

Or maybe you’re feeling independent enough to stop working all together.

Folks who plan their retirement around hitting some arbitrary financial number often put off retirement longer than they need to. Remember, financial independence isn’t a number. 

Seeing how your plan can make your retirement possible while also providing for long-term goals like vacationing or relocating could give you the security you need to feel financially independent. Want to discuss this further?  Reach out to me and let’s start planning to earn more Return on Life (ROL) and more freedom from your money.

Q3 Letter To Clients

Do you ever stop to smell the roses, literally?  As we transition from the vibrant days of spring into the warmth of summer, it’s a wonderful time to pause and reflect on the beauty that surrounds us. Whether it’s the blooming gardens, the long sunny days, or the simple pleasure of an evening walk, I encourage you to take a moment to appreciate the small joys of the season.  These have a way of putting the world’s crazy into perspective, which is necessary if we are going to stay happy, healthy individuals for all our days.

Market Overview

So let’s talk a little ‘crazy’…As we enter the third quarter of 2024, we find ourselves in a financial environment marked by both challenges and opportunities. Year to date, it seems that diversification is missing out on huge gains coming from just a few stocks. Not only have many broad markets delivered gains from acceptable to amazing, but there has also been the usual assortment of sizzling stocks like NVIDIA (NVDA), and tantalizing new products like crypto ETFs to distract us with their dazzle.

Strong market performance is welcome news. But at least in the wider investment world, we’re likely to see a different kind of response that isn’t as welcoming: Instead of fleeing the downturns, restless market players may be tempted to chase after speculative trends, no matter how closely they resemble past Fear of Missing Out (FOMO) frenzies.  There’s almost always something alluring and allegedly unprecedented to fuel our FOMO. But before you go all-in on the most recent high-flyers, remember:

The latest innovations are often very real, remarkable, and potentially game-changing forces in our lives. But the manner in which capital markets absorb these forces and convert them into long-term returns is far more constant.

Which reinforces why our own refrain remains the same whether markets are up or down:

Neither hot nor cold streaks among stocks, sectors, or markets give us good reason to abandon an otherwise well-built portfolio.

Staying the Course

It’s natural to feel anxious during periods of uncertainty, but it’s crucial to remember that our financial plan is designed to withstand these fluctuations. History has shown that markets tend to recover and grow over time, despite periodic downturns. Our diversified approach to investing is intended to mitigate risk and provide a stable foundation for your financial future.

This is why we still advise building and maintaining a low-cost, globally diversified investment portfolio aimed at your personal long-term goals. This, despite the cognitive traps laid by the most recent rounds of FOMO. As Nobel laureate Daniel Kahneman reportedly observed quite bluntly:

“If you think you’re an expert on picking stocks, then you should be fabulously rich. If you’re not, you’re probably not.” — Daniel Kahneman

Controlling What You Can

Now on to the ‘happy and healthy’ part…While we cannot control the markets or political developments, we can control how we respond to them. It’s essential to focus on the aspects of life that are within our power to manage. One such area is aligning our lives with our values and priorities. Living according to what truly matters to you can provide a sense of purpose and fulfillment that transcends financial concerns.

One way to foster this alignment is by integrating movement and adventure into your daily routine. Research has consistently shown the profound benefits of physical activity on both physical and mental health. It has become very clear that regular physical activity and engaging in adventurous activities can significantly enhance one’s healthspan—the period of life spent in good health, free from chronic diseases and disabilities.

The Value of Movement and Adventure

Engaging in physical activities, whether it’s trail running, hiking, or simply taking a walk in the park, can have a transformative impact on your overall well-being. Movement not only improves cardiovascular health, strengthens muscles, and boosts energy levels but also reduces stress and enhances mental clarity. Adventure, on the other hand, introduces an element of excitement and novelty that can invigorate the spirit and foster a sense of achievement.

Incorporating movement and adventure into your life doesn’t have to be a grand endeavor. It can be as simple as exploring a new hiking trail, trying a new sport, or setting aside time each day for a brisk walk. The key is to make it a regular part of your routine, allowing it to become a habit that supports your health and happiness.

Embracing Life’s Adventure

Beyond the physical benefits, adventure can also serve as a metaphor for how we approach life’s challenges and opportunities. Embracing adventure means being open to new experiences, taking calculated risks, and stepping out of our comfort zones. It’s about seeing life as a journey filled with possibilities, rather than a series of obstacles to overcome.

As you navigate the complexities of the financial markets and the uncertainties of the world, we encourage you to adopt an adventurous mindset. Approach each day with curiosity and a willingness to explore. Trust in the financial plan we have crafted together, knowing that it is designed to support your long-term goals. And most importantly, prioritize your well-being by staying active and embracing the adventures that life has to offer.

In closing, we want to express our gratitude for your continued trust and partnership.  Let’s make this quarter a time of growth, both financially and personally. Embrace the beauty of the season, stay active, and approach each day with a sense of adventure. By focusing on the aspects of life we can control and maintaining a sense of adventure, we can navigate the uncertainties of the financial world with confidence and resilience. Thank you for allowing us to be part of your journey.

Q2 Letter To Clients

Market Summary: A Look Back at the Last Quarter

 

As we wrap up another quarter, it’s essential to reflect on the stock market’s performance and how it has impacted our investment strategies. The last three months have been a period of moderate volatility, influenced by various global economic factors, including adjustments in monetary policies by central banks, geopolitical tensions, and ongoing adjustments to the post-pandemic economic recovery. Despite these challenges, certain sectors have shown resilience and even growth, presenting new opportunities for diversified portfolios. As always, our focus remains more on making sure your financial plan stays on track rather than focusing on short term market movements.

 

The Upcoming Tax Deadline: Act Now

 

With the tax filing deadline swiftly approaching, we want to remind everyone of the importance of either filing your tax return or securing an extension on time. This year, the deadline for submitting your taxes is April 15. Early preparation can not only save you from last-minute stress but also provide ample time to explore potential tax-saving strategies. Our team is ready to assist with any questions or concerns you may have about your tax situation. Remember, being proactive with your taxes is not just about meeting deadlines; it’s about optimizing your financial health.

 

Spring Into Nature: The Adventure Awaits

 

As financial planners, we often emphasize the health of your investments and financial well-being. However, your personal health and happiness are just as crucial. This spring, we encourage you to be intentional about spending time in nature. Immersing yourself in the great outdoors is not only refreshing but is also a fantastic way to recharge your mental and emotional batteries. When planning your adventure, consider three key components: preparation, presence, and preservation.

  • Preparation involves choosing the right gear and understanding the environment you’ll be exploring.
  • Presence is about fully experiencing the moment, whether it’s a quiet walk through the woods or a challenging hike up a mountain.
  • Preservation means respecting the natural beauty around you, ensuring it remains untouched for future adventurers. Let’s embrace the spring season with a sense of adventure and a commitment to our well-being.

I also want to make a point to highlight our recent office move.  You can find our team at 7500 Six Forks Rd, Suite 100, Raleigh, NC 27615.  Thankfully, we didn’t have to go far as we are just across the street from our old address.

As we move forward, let’s remember that our financial goals are not just about numbers on a page; they’re about enabling the life we want to lead and the adventures we wish to embark upon. Our team is here to support you in all aspects of your financial journey, from navigating market trends to planning your next nature getaway. Here’s to a prosperous and adventure-filled spring!

 

February Market Update

For the investor looking for market details and explanations, this February Market Update article is for you.  Broad market index and tech stock investors were in command throughout January, even as the month ended with a Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting taming some potentially over-enthusiastic March rate cut bulls. 

 

With the tech and major market index rally continuing its run since November, I thought now would be a good time to inform you of the latest developments set to impact Americans in the months ahead. 

 

Major Stock Indexes

 

January was good for long-term investors in U.S. stocks, especially in large tech with AI exposure.  If you haven’t heard of Nvidia before, you will from now on.  Market bulls (ie, investors expecting the market to continue its run upward) were cheering the prospects of a more accommodating Fed in 2024, with the rate decision and Fed statement happening on the last day of the month. 

 

For the month of January, the S&P 500 added 1.59%, the Nasdaq 100 tacked on 1.82%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 1.22%.

 

Mixed/Slowing Inflation Signals

 

The overall trend for inflation was mixed in January, even as Consumer Price Index (CPI) data came in a bit hot.

 

CPI: The December Consumer Price Index showed a 0.3% monthly increase in December and a 3.4% increase versus one year ago. Estimates were for a 0.2% monthly gain in December and a 3.2% gain year-over-year. Shelter and services pricing remained sticky.

 

PPI: For December, the Producer Price Index report came in below expectations, indicating mixed signals on the inflation front.

 

According to the report, wholesale prices declined by 0.1% month-over-month in December, lower than the expected gain of 0.1% estimated by Dow Jones economists.

 

PCE: According to the most recent Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) release, the rate of price increases slowed down as 2023 came to a close. 

 

The Fed’s preferred inflation indicator showed that prices were higher by 0.2% month-over-month in December and by 2.9% year-over-year. Dow Jones economists had expected respective increases of 0.2% and 3%. However, digging a little deeper and looking at the three and six-month averages of Core PCE on an annualized basis, we see it running under 2% (note: the Fed’s Target is 2%). This data, noted by former Vice Chair of the Federal Reserve Lael Brainard and provided by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, has inflation watchers cheering the current market environment.

 

Fed Put?

 

In plain English, a “Fed put” means that the Fed is standing by to change policy if needed, should the equity markets experience declines.  At present, it feels like there are the makings of a Fed put under the market. If storm clouds arise, the market is expecting the Fed to “come to the rescue” with rate cuts in 2024 if needed.  The market was expecting six rate cuts in 2024 before the January Fed meeting, even though the economy has been performing well as of late. This outlook is not the norm. Historically, rate cuts are seen in struggling or downtrodden economies that need stimulation.  The January Fed meeting tempered expectations for a March rate cut, with probabilities declining from 50% to 35.5% on January 31. However, it is still early in this election year, so pay attention.

 

This idea of a Fed put is a concept, not a guarantee, and seemed to be on the mind of many market participants at the start of February, indicating that the collective market mindset could be that any pullbacks may be short-lived.

 

Treasury Yields Steady in January

 

The widely monitored 10-year Treasury note yield was close to unchanged for the month of January, closing the month near 3.966% — about 10 basis points higher than December’s closing level near 3.865%.  This is the yield most closely tied to the movement of mortgage rates, so it is watched closely.  January marks two consecutive monthly closes below 4.00% in the 10-year yield.  The steadiness in rates is good news for sidelined prospective mortgage borrowers and great news for long-term investors in U.S. equities.

 

Fed Rate Decision

 

The last day of January gave us the first Fed meeting of 2024, as the Fed left interest rates unchanged in line with market expectations.  There were some changes to the Fed’s statement, however, as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell seemed to want to tame the market’s excitement for a March rate cut.  “I don’t think it’s likely that the committee will reach a level of confidence by the time of the March meeting to cut rates,” Powell said.  The verbal statement indicating that a March rate cut is not likely poured some water on the fire of potentially overly enthusiastic stock market bulls as the major averages pulled back during and after Powell’s commentary.  Powell did signal rate cuts at some point in 2024, however.  “It will likely be appropriate to begin dialing back policy restraint at some point this year,” said Powell.

 

Pretty vague, huh?  Fed-speak is one of the hardest languages to learn!

 

Consumer & Employment Strong

 

Consumer health metrics remained strong during January, even as many analysts expect the consumer to “tap out”.  At the same time, labor market data exceeded expectations for December, showing 216,000 jobs created. Government jobs and health-care-related fields led the way.

 

Starting the month of February, the latest employment report blew away all expectations, showing 353,000 jobs created in January versus 185,000 estimates by Dow Jones. The labor market continues to surprise to the upside, and the market reaction was an interesting one.

 

January Labor Data Market Reaction

 

While the massively better-than-expected January jobs data indicates a stronger economy, it also shows that the economy may still be running hotter than the Fed wants to see. This reinforces the logical probability that a March rate cut could be off the table.

 

Major U.S. stock indexes didn’t seem to mind, though, as they cheered the data by trading to the upside on the day of. The jobs report was released the morning after positive earnings results from Meta (Facebook), Microsoft, and Amazon. So, perhaps this earnings effect outshined the March rate cut odds everyone seemed to be so fixated upon just a day before.

 

The probability for a March 25-basis-point cut was all over the place at the end of January and beginning of February, resting at a 20% chance on February 1 after sitting at a 46.2% chance on January 26th, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

 

Is the economy still too hot? What do the continuing and massive upside surprises in the job market mean for inflation?  This is interesting data for short term speculation, but as you have heard many times in the past, short term data is not very helpful in making long term decisions with your investments.  Pay attention to these data points, if you find it interesting, but don’t let any of it sway you from your financial planning course.

 

Q1 Letter to Clients

If there’s a message to take from 2023 markets, it is this: Timeless wisdom best informs timely decisions.

Here’s how Morgan Housel describes the same in his new book, “Same as Ever.”

“The typical attempt to clear up an uncertain future is to gaze further and squint harder—to forecast with more precision, more data, and more intelligence. Far more effective is to do the opposite: Look backward, and be broad. Rather than attempting to figure out little ways the future might change, study the big things the past has never avoided.”

Following are a few timeless tenets that offer timely investment insights for the year ahead.

There’s Never a Good Time to Time the Market

Perhaps most obviously, last year demonstrated how randomly—and rapidly—markets can move. As The Wall Street Journal reported at year-end:

“Almost no one thought 2023 would be a blockbuster year for stocks. They could hardly have been more wrong.”

Another financial journal observed:

“What was supposed to go up went down, or listed sideways, and what was supposed to go down went up — and up and up. The S&P 500 climbed more than 20% and the Nasdaq 100 soared over 50%, the biggest annual gain since the go-go days of the dot-com boom. … ‘I’ve never seen the consensus as wrong as it was in 2023,’ said Andrew Pease, the chief investment strategist at Russell Investments.”

Many financial pundits offered elaborate explanations for the year’s fortunes, and why (in hindsight) their projections were so far off. While their reasons may be accurate, the implication is, were it not for this, that, or the other thing, their forecasts would have been correct.

The problem is, there’s almost always “this, that, or the other thing” going on in this big, busy world. Thus, it really should come as no surprise that routine surprises regularly randomize the market’s next moves.

We’ve known this for years—since at least 1973, when Burton Malkiel published the first edition of “A Random Walk Down Wall Street.” Even after 50 years, Malkiel’s message represents one of the most timeless truths explaining why we don’t try to time market trends.

Beware of Catchy Catchphrases

In 2023, just seven stocks within the S&P 500 Index explained almost two-thirds of the index’s total annual gains. Their striking performance scored them the catchy title, “Magnificent Seven.”

What should we expect for this star lineup in the coming year? Search today’s popular press, and you’ll find timely tips galore on whether to bulk up on more magnificence, or sell while the selling is good. Forecasts hinge on the usual suspects: Whether inflation rises or falls, a recession lands or recedes, technologies advance or retreat, and so on.

Taking a more timeless view, we would suggest being wary of celebrated stocks bearing trendy titles. Chasing after stellar returns with their own nicknames may work for a while. But eventually, one of those “surprises” tends to come along, turning once-hot stocks into cold plays.

Which brings us to our next timeless tenet.

Diversification Is Perennially Prudent

Viewing 2023 up close, there may be a temptation to chase after the market’s recent winning streak, bulking up on more of that which has been so pleasantly surprising of late.

Zooming out, our perspective remains unchanged: Maintain a globally diversified portfolio, tailored for your needs. Treat an allocation to the Magnificent Seven (and the next trend, and the one after that) as one of many “pistons” powering the market’s perennial growth. But pair it with effective diversification, to temper the inevitable upsets that await us in the year(s) ahead.

In this spirit, I wish you a well-diversified investment portfolio in 2024, along with abundant concentrations of health, happiness, and harmonious well-being for you and yours.

 

 

Preparing Your Adult Children for Inherited Wealth

When it comes to inheritance, it is vital that a parent transfer wisdom before they ever consider transferring wealth.  Most children learn the ins and outs of responsible wealth-building from their parents. And most of this through watching.  But as kids grow, simple conversations about saving and spending often branch out into investing, compounding, and comprehensive Life-Centered Planning. But no matter how many good financial habits your children have learned by adulthood, they could still be unprepared for their role in your legacy plan.

Talking to your adult children about inheriting your wealth might be awkward at first. But if you work through this six-part framework you’ll all feel better about your wishes, your kids’ responsibilities, and your family’s Return on Life.

 

  1. Review your estate plan.

While you’re still around to change it, your estate plan is never set in stone. Every year, sit down with your financial advisor and attorney to make sure you’re still happy with your beneficiaries, your health care directives, and the allocation of your assets. You’re under no obligation to share every aspect of your finances and health with your children. But the more you tell them about your legacy plan now, the easier it will be for them to care for you and settle your affairs when the time comes.

 

  1. Consider the impact on your heirs.

Money impacts different people very differently. Inheriting a portion of your legacy could be life-changing for one of your children. Another might not experience much of a change at all. Encourage your children to put together their own team of financial, tax, and legal professionals who will help them make the best use of their inheritance with the least amount of hassle. If you currently work with our firm, we are always happy to meet with your kids at any point.  When we work with a family, we consider all generations a client of our firm.

 

  1. Promote responsible behavior.

Keep in mind that money is a poor tool to fix problems…it is, however, incredibly efficient at exposing problems that were already there. You may feel like you have no choice but to leave some of your wealth to an adult child who doesn’t have the best financial habits. However, it is possible to establish guardrails, such as a family trust that releases money under certain conditions that you establish in your legacy plan.

Even the most responsible children might not be capable of managing a company, real estate, or an art collection. Talk to your children about how their abilities and goals fit with how you want more complicated assets to be managed.

 
  1. Consider transferring some of your wealth during your lifetime.

Transferring money to the next generation could have a couple of different benefits.  First, when you give funds to your kids during your lifetime, you get the enjoyment of seeing them actually benefit from the gift.  Second, it can be used as a teaching tool.  Learning how to make wise decisions with a smaller amount will prepare your kids for handling a much larger amount in the future.  Better to make mistakes and learn when there are fewer ‘zeros’ involved.

 

  1. Set realistic expectations.

Your children likely have ideas about your wealth and expectations for what they will inherit. Have an honest conversation that will help them recalibrate those expectations properly. You don’t want your kids to plan for a life of luxury that you won’t be leaving to them. But if they’re set to inherit more than they realize, you also don’t want them planning for a too-frugal future lacking certain experiences and comforts.

 

  1. Shore up your plan.

By now you have identified some strengths and weaknesses in both your legacy plan and your children’s financial skills. Use this information to plan for improvements. Talk to your financial team about vehicles that can protect certain assets and encourage responsible stewardship. Assign a professional executor who will oversee your estate. Work with your children on a plan to develop the knowledge and skills they’ll need to manage more complicated assets. Identify potential mentors whom you can trust to guide your children after you’re gone.

 

  1. Clarify your intentions.

Sometimes the assets in an estate plan get in the way of the real purpose of the estate plan. You aren’t just passing on stuff, you’re passing on values, experiences, and the means to do more with money than just have more money.

Tell your children what you hope they’ll do with your legacy, not just to make their own lives better but to make life better for their own families, friends, and communities. If you’ve made choices in your legacy plan that might be difficult for your kids to accept, explain your reasoning and your intentions. If you can’t reach a place of agreement, at least try to reach a place of understanding and mutual respect.

And if you need help facilitating these conversations, consider bringing your children into our office for a family meeting. We’re always happy to help families prepare for legacy events that preserve and respect what matters most.

 

4 Financial Best Practices for Year-End 2023

Scan the financial headlines these days, and you’ll see plenty of potential action items vying for your year-end attention. Some may be particular to 2023. Others are timeless traditions. If your wealth were a garden, which actions would actually deserve your attention? Here are our four favorite items worth tending to as 2024 approaches … plus a thoughtful reflection on how to make the most of the remaining year.  

 

1.     Feed Your Cash Reserves

With basic savings accounts currently offering 5%+ annual interest rates, your fallow cash is finally able to earn a nice little bit while it sits. Sweet! Two thoughts here:

Mind Where You’ve Stashed Your Cash: If your spending money is still sitting in low- or no-interest accounts, consider taking advantage of the attractive rates available in basic money market accounts, or similar savings vehicles such as short-term CDs, or U.S. Series I Saving Bonds (“I Bonds”). Your cash savings typically includes money you intend to spend within the next year or so, as well as your emergency, “rainy day” reserves. (Note: I Bonds require you to hold them for at least a year.)

Put Your Cash in Context: While current rates across many savings accounts are appealing, don’t let this distract you from your greater investment goals. Even at today’s higher rates, your cash reserves are eventually expected to lose their spending power in the face of inflation. Today’s rates don’t eliminate this issue … remember, inflation is also on the high side, so that 5% isn’t as amazing as it may seem. Once you’ve got your cash stashed in those high-interest savings accounts, we believe you’re better off allocating your remaining assets into your investment portfolio—and leaving the dollars there for pursuing your long game.  

 

2.     Prune Your Portfolio

While we don’t advocate using your investment reserves to chase money market rates, there are still plenty of other actions you can take to maintain a tidy portfolio mix. For this, it’s prudent to perform an annual review of how your proverbial garden is growing. Year-end is as good a milestone as any for this activity. For example, you can:

Rebalance: In 2023, relatively strong year-to-date stock returns may warrant rebalancing back to plan, especially if you can do so within your tax-sheltered accounts.

Relocate: With your annual earnings coming into focus, you may wish to shift some of your investments from taxable to tax-sheltered accounts, such as traditional or Roth IRAs, HSAs, and 529 College Savings Plans. For many of these, you have until next April 15, 2024 to make your 2023 contributions. But you don’t have to wait if the assets are available today, and it otherwise makes tax-wise sense.

Revise: As you rebalance, relocate, or add new holdings according to plan, you may also be able to take advantage of the latest science-based ETF solutions.  We’re not necessarily suggesting major overhauls, especially where embedded taxable gains may negate the benefits of a new offering. But as you’re reallocating or adding new assets anyway, it’s worth noting there may be new, potentially improved resources available.

Redirect: Year-end can also be a great time to redirect excess wealth toward personal or charitable giving. Whether directly or through a Donor Advised Fund, you can donate highly appreciated investments out of your taxable accounts and into worthy causes. You stand to reduce current and future taxes, and your recipients get to put the assets to work right away. This can be a slam dunk strategy to avoid an embedded capital gain and get a tax deduction for the full value going to the charity of your choice.  If you have appreciated assets, considering gifting these and holding on to your cash.

 

3.     Train Those Taxes

Speaking of taxes, there are always plenty of ways to manage your current and lifetime tax burdens—especially as your financial numbers and various tax-related deadlines come into focus toward year-end. For example:

RMDs and QCDs: Retirees and IRA inheritors should continue making any obligatory Required Minimum Distributions (RMDs) out of their IRAs and similar tax-sheltered accounts. With the 2022 Secure Act 2.0, the penalty for missing an RMD will no longer exceed 25% of any underpayment, rather than the former 50%. But even 25% is a painful penalty if you miss the December 31 deadline. If you’re charitably inclined, you may prefer to make a year-end Qualified Charitable Distribution (QCD), to offset or potentially eliminate your RMD burden.

Harvesting Losses … and Gains: Depending on market conditions and your own portfolio, there may still be opportunities to perform some tax-loss harvesting in 2023, to offset current or future taxable gains from your account. As long as long-term capital gains rates remain in the relatively low range of 0%–20%, tax-gain harvesting might be of interest as well. Work with your tax-planning team to determine what makes sense for you.

Keeping an Eye on the 2025 Sunset: Nobody can predict what the future holds. But if Congress does not act, a number of tax-friendly 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act provisions are set to sunset on December 31, 2025. If they do, we might experience higher ordinary income and capital gains tax rates after that. Let’s be clear: A lot could change before then, so we’re not necessarily suggesting you shape all your plans around this one potential future. However, if it’s in your overall best interests to engage in various taxable transactions anyway, 2023 may be a relatively tax-friendly year in which to complete them. Examples include doing a Roth conversion, harvesting long-term capital gains, taking extra retirement plan withdrawals, exercising taxable stock options, gifting to loved ones, and more.

 

4.     Weed Out Your To-Do List

I love this one…it is at the top of my improvement goals.  Doing less instead of staying busy with more.  This year, we’re intentionally keeping our list of year-end financial best practices on the short side. Not for lack of ideas, mind you; there are plenty more we could cover.

But consider these words of wisdom from Atomic Habits author James Clear:

“Instead of asking yourself, ‘What should I do first?’ Try asking, ‘What should I neglect first?’ Trim, edit, cull. Make space for better performance.”

— JamesClear.com

 

Let’s combine Clear’s tip with sentiments from a Farnam Street piece, “How to Think Better.” Here, a Stanford University study has suggested that multitasking may not only make it harder for us to do our best thinking, it may impair our efforts. 

“The best way to improve your ability to think is to spend large chunks of time thinking. … Good decision-makers understand a simple truth: you can’t make good decisions without good thinking, and good thinking requires time.”

— Farnam Street

 

In short, how do you really want to spend the rest of your year? Instead of trying to tackle everything at once, why not pick your favorite, most applicable best practice out of our short list of favorites? Take the time to think it through. Maybe save the rest for some other time.