I have a Lump Sum in Cash – Should I Invest It Right Away?

Whether it’s a work bonus, inheritance, or proceeds from selling a business, receiving a large sum of money can leave you wondering, “What do I do with it now?” It’s natural to feel a bit stuck—especially with the market going through its usual ups and downs. Do you invest it all at once, or spread it out over time?

This is a common question, and honestly, it’s understandable. We all worry about making the wrong move—invest too soon and the market might drop; wait too long and you could miss a rally. But there’s no need to over-complicate it. Let’s break down your options.

Start with Your Goals

Before diving into the numbers, ask yourself: What do I want this money to do for me?

If you’ve got short-term goals, like paying for your kid’s college tuition in the next few years, you may want to lean toward more stable, less risky investments—think bonds, bond funds, or CDs. These are less likely to be impacted by the market’s short-term swings.

On the other hand, if this money is for long-term goals, like retirement, then putting it into the stock market might make sense. Over the long haul, markets tend to rise, despite the short-term ups and downs.

Lump-Sum vs. Dollar-Cost Averaging

Now, should you invest all the cash at once or spread it out?

Lump-sum investing gets all your money into the market right away, which could be great if the market’s on the rise. But no one can predict the future, and there’s always a chance the market dips right after you invest. If that possibility stresses you out, dollar-cost averaging (DCA) might be more your speed.

With DCA, you invest a set amount regularly—say, $1,000 a month for a year. When prices are high, you buy fewer shares; when prices drop, you buy more. It’s a steady approach that smooths out market fluctuations over time.

However, here’s the kicker: research shows that lump-sum investing tends to outperform dollar-cost averaging about 68% of the time. So, if your main goal is maximizing returns, lump-sum might be the way to go. That said, the difference in returns between the two strategies isn’t massive, so if dollar-cost averaging helps you sleep better at night, it’s worth considering. After all, the last thing you want is to panic and sell when the market dips.

The Bottom Line—Don’t Wait

Whether you go with lump-sum investing or dollar-cost averaging, the most important thing is not to delay. Holding onto cash means missing out on potential growth from stocks and bonds. And trying to time the market? That’s a tough game to win.

In fact, studies show that average investors who attempt to time the market often miss out—by as much as 5.5% compared to just sticking with the S&P 500. So, whatever you decide, get started. Both approaches will help you benefit from the market’s long-term upward trend, which is key to achieving your financial goals.

Need help figuring out which approach works best for you? Reach out, and we’ll walk through it together.

Q4 Letter To Clients

As we reflect on the past quarter, I want to emphasize our commitment to your overall financial well-being. This not only includes helping you plan for your goals but also protecting the assets you’ve worked so hard to build. Our focus this quarter is centered on enhancing your cybersecurity protection. With cyber threats increasing globally, protecting your personal and financial information has never been more critical. According to a recent study, cyberattacks have increased by 125% over the past year, and 64% of individuals have experienced some form of a data breach.  In 2023 alone, there were over 1.8 billion data breaches globally, with financial accounts being a key target. The Federal Trade Commission reports that identity theft cases grew by 15% last year, emphasizing the need for vigilance.

Given this rise, we’re dedicating more resources to ensuring your financial data is secure, and we strongly recommend you take steps to safeguard your online information. To assist with this, we are hosting a webinar this month on proactive cybersecurity strategies tailored for our clients. Please join us on October 23 at 12pm -1pm EST to learn more about how to protect yourself and your family.  Registration is required and can be found here.

In terms of market performance, the past quarter has seen mixed movements across key asset classes. Equities rallied early in the quarter due to continued optimism around cooling inflation and central bank policies, though rising interest rates brought some volatility by quarter’s end. Meanwhile, bonds saw more stability as yields increased, providing attractive opportunities for income-focused portfolios. In the alternative asset space, real estate has faced headwinds with higher borrowing costs, while commodities have seen strength due to geopolitical tensions and supply chain pressures.

As always, we take a holistic approach to your financial plan, ensuring that market shifts are viewed through the lens of your long-term life goals. Market movements will come and go, but our focus remains on helping you achieve financial peace of mind and purpose-driven financial life planning. We are here to guide you through each phase, adapting strategies as needed to support your goals and priorities.

We are here to support you and answer any questions you may have.

Less is More in Election Years

I am getting tons of questions right now (and every 4 years historically) about what does the election cycle mean for my investments and what should we do to ‘protect’ ourselves.  These are legitimate questions coming from an honest place of concern about important matters.  My answer has been pretty consistent now for over 20 years, but I could not write this any better, so I’m going to leave this to an expert.  This is a must read from Dr. Daniel Crosby, Chief Behavioral Officer with Orion.  He is a psychologist and behavioral finance expert with a New York Times best seller.

 

 

As the 2024 election approaches, the political noise is deafening. Campaigns are in full swing, pundits are making predictions, and market analysts are offering endless advice on how to manage your investments. However, the best strategy for your portfolio during this tumultuous time might surprise you: do nothing.

In times of great political and economic uncertainty, the instinct to take action can be overwhelming. This tendency, known by shrinks like me as “action bias,” is the inclination to favor action over inaction, especially when the stakes are high. It’s a concept that’s particularly relevant in the world of investing.

Consider the world of soccer, where goalkeepers, faced with penalty kicks, often dive dramatically to the left or right. A group of researchers examined 311 penalty kicks and found that goalies dove to the left or right 94% of the time. However, the kicks were distributed roughly equally: one-third to the left, one-third to the right, and one-third down the middle. Goalkeepers who stayed in the center had a 60% chance of stopping the ball, far greater than the odds when diving left or right.

So why do goalkeepers choose dramatic dives over the more effective strategy of staying centered? When we put ourselves in the shoes (or cleats) of the goalie, especially in high-stakes situations, the reason becomes clear. When the game and national pride are on the line, goalies want to appear as though they are giving a heroic effort. Staying centered can look like complacency, even though it’s statistically the best choice. This same dynamic applies to investors who, in times of market distress, feel compelled to act, even when inaction would serve them better.

When Vanguard examined the performance of accounts that had made no changes versus those that had made tweaks, they found that the “no change” condition handily outperformed the tinkerers. Meir Statman cites research from Sweden showing that the heaviest traders lose 4 percent of their account value each year to trading costs and poor timing and these results are consistent across the globe. Across 19 major stock exchanges, investors who made frequent changes trailed buy-and-hold investors by 1.5 percentage points per year.

Perhaps the best-known study on the damaging effects of action bias also provides insight into gender-linked tendencies in trading behavior. Terrance Odean and Brad Barber, two of the fathers of behavioral finance, looked at the individual accounts of a large discount broker and found something that surprised them at the time.

The men in the study traded 45 percent more than the women, with single men out-trading their female counterparts by an incredible 67 percent. Barber and Odean attribute this greater activity to overconfidence, but whatever its psychological roots, it consistently degraded returns. As a result of overactivity, the average man in the study underperformed the average woman by 1.4 percentage points per year. Worse still, single men lagged single women by 2.3 percent – an incredible drag when compounded over an investment lifetime.

The tendency of women to outperform is not only seen in retail investors, however. Female hedge fund managers have consistently and soundly thumped their male colleagues, owing largely to the patience discussed above. As LouAnn Lofton of the Motley Fool reports, “…funds managed by women have, since inception, returned an average 9.06 percent, compared to just 5.82 percent averaged by a weighted index of other hedge funds. As if that outperformance weren’t impressive enough, the group also found that during the financial panic of 2008, these women-managed funds weren’t hurt nearly as severely as the rest of the hedge fund universe, with the funds dropping 9.61 percent compared to the 19.03 percent suffered by other funds.”

As the 2024 election unfolds, resist the urge to make dramatic changes to your portfolio. Remember, sometimes the best action is inaction. By staying the course and avoiding the pitfalls of action bias, you can protect and grow your wealth, regardless of the political landscape.

Source: The Laws of Wealth, Crosby  

 

Q3 Letter To Clients

Do you ever stop to smell the roses, literally?  As we transition from the vibrant days of spring into the warmth of summer, it’s a wonderful time to pause and reflect on the beauty that surrounds us. Whether it’s the blooming gardens, the long sunny days, or the simple pleasure of an evening walk, I encourage you to take a moment to appreciate the small joys of the season.  These have a way of putting the world’s crazy into perspective, which is necessary if we are going to stay happy, healthy individuals for all our days.

Market Overview

So let’s talk a little ‘crazy’…As we enter the third quarter of 2024, we find ourselves in a financial environment marked by both challenges and opportunities. Year to date, it seems that diversification is missing out on huge gains coming from just a few stocks. Not only have many broad markets delivered gains from acceptable to amazing, but there has also been the usual assortment of sizzling stocks like NVIDIA (NVDA), and tantalizing new products like crypto ETFs to distract us with their dazzle.

Strong market performance is welcome news. But at least in the wider investment world, we’re likely to see a different kind of response that isn’t as welcoming: Instead of fleeing the downturns, restless market players may be tempted to chase after speculative trends, no matter how closely they resemble past Fear of Missing Out (FOMO) frenzies.  There’s almost always something alluring and allegedly unprecedented to fuel our FOMO. But before you go all-in on the most recent high-flyers, remember:

The latest innovations are often very real, remarkable, and potentially game-changing forces in our lives. But the manner in which capital markets absorb these forces and convert them into long-term returns is far more constant.

Which reinforces why our own refrain remains the same whether markets are up or down:

Neither hot nor cold streaks among stocks, sectors, or markets give us good reason to abandon an otherwise well-built portfolio.

Staying the Course

It’s natural to feel anxious during periods of uncertainty, but it’s crucial to remember that our financial plan is designed to withstand these fluctuations. History has shown that markets tend to recover and grow over time, despite periodic downturns. Our diversified approach to investing is intended to mitigate risk and provide a stable foundation for your financial future.

This is why we still advise building and maintaining a low-cost, globally diversified investment portfolio aimed at your personal long-term goals. This, despite the cognitive traps laid by the most recent rounds of FOMO. As Nobel laureate Daniel Kahneman reportedly observed quite bluntly:

“If you think you’re an expert on picking stocks, then you should be fabulously rich. If you’re not, you’re probably not.” — Daniel Kahneman

Controlling What You Can

Now on to the ‘happy and healthy’ part…While we cannot control the markets or political developments, we can control how we respond to them. It’s essential to focus on the aspects of life that are within our power to manage. One such area is aligning our lives with our values and priorities. Living according to what truly matters to you can provide a sense of purpose and fulfillment that transcends financial concerns.

One way to foster this alignment is by integrating movement and adventure into your daily routine. Research has consistently shown the profound benefits of physical activity on both physical and mental health. It has become very clear that regular physical activity and engaging in adventurous activities can significantly enhance one’s healthspan—the period of life spent in good health, free from chronic diseases and disabilities.

The Value of Movement and Adventure

Engaging in physical activities, whether it’s trail running, hiking, or simply taking a walk in the park, can have a transformative impact on your overall well-being. Movement not only improves cardiovascular health, strengthens muscles, and boosts energy levels but also reduces stress and enhances mental clarity. Adventure, on the other hand, introduces an element of excitement and novelty that can invigorate the spirit and foster a sense of achievement.

Incorporating movement and adventure into your life doesn’t have to be a grand endeavor. It can be as simple as exploring a new hiking trail, trying a new sport, or setting aside time each day for a brisk walk. The key is to make it a regular part of your routine, allowing it to become a habit that supports your health and happiness.

Embracing Life’s Adventure

Beyond the physical benefits, adventure can also serve as a metaphor for how we approach life’s challenges and opportunities. Embracing adventure means being open to new experiences, taking calculated risks, and stepping out of our comfort zones. It’s about seeing life as a journey filled with possibilities, rather than a series of obstacles to overcome.

As you navigate the complexities of the financial markets and the uncertainties of the world, we encourage you to adopt an adventurous mindset. Approach each day with curiosity and a willingness to explore. Trust in the financial plan we have crafted together, knowing that it is designed to support your long-term goals. And most importantly, prioritize your well-being by staying active and embracing the adventures that life has to offer.

In closing, we want to express our gratitude for your continued trust and partnership.  Let’s make this quarter a time of growth, both financially and personally. Embrace the beauty of the season, stay active, and approach each day with a sense of adventure. By focusing on the aspects of life we can control and maintaining a sense of adventure, we can navigate the uncertainties of the financial world with confidence and resilience. Thank you for allowing us to be part of your journey.

Q2 Letter To Clients

Market Summary: A Look Back at the Last Quarter

 

As we wrap up another quarter, it’s essential to reflect on the stock market’s performance and how it has impacted our investment strategies. The last three months have been a period of moderate volatility, influenced by various global economic factors, including adjustments in monetary policies by central banks, geopolitical tensions, and ongoing adjustments to the post-pandemic economic recovery. Despite these challenges, certain sectors have shown resilience and even growth, presenting new opportunities for diversified portfolios. As always, our focus remains more on making sure your financial plan stays on track rather than focusing on short term market movements.

 

The Upcoming Tax Deadline: Act Now

 

With the tax filing deadline swiftly approaching, we want to remind everyone of the importance of either filing your tax return or securing an extension on time. This year, the deadline for submitting your taxes is April 15. Early preparation can not only save you from last-minute stress but also provide ample time to explore potential tax-saving strategies. Our team is ready to assist with any questions or concerns you may have about your tax situation. Remember, being proactive with your taxes is not just about meeting deadlines; it’s about optimizing your financial health.

 

Spring Into Nature: The Adventure Awaits

 

As financial planners, we often emphasize the health of your investments and financial well-being. However, your personal health and happiness are just as crucial. This spring, we encourage you to be intentional about spending time in nature. Immersing yourself in the great outdoors is not only refreshing but is also a fantastic way to recharge your mental and emotional batteries. When planning your adventure, consider three key components: preparation, presence, and preservation.

  • Preparation involves choosing the right gear and understanding the environment you’ll be exploring.
  • Presence is about fully experiencing the moment, whether it’s a quiet walk through the woods or a challenging hike up a mountain.
  • Preservation means respecting the natural beauty around you, ensuring it remains untouched for future adventurers. Let’s embrace the spring season with a sense of adventure and a commitment to our well-being.

I also want to make a point to highlight our recent office move.  You can find our team at 7500 Six Forks Rd, Suite 100, Raleigh, NC 27615.  Thankfully, we didn’t have to go far as we are just across the street from our old address.

As we move forward, let’s remember that our financial goals are not just about numbers on a page; they’re about enabling the life we want to lead and the adventures we wish to embark upon. Our team is here to support you in all aspects of your financial journey, from navigating market trends to planning your next nature getaway. Here’s to a prosperous and adventure-filled spring!

 

Q1 Letter to Clients

If there’s a message to take from 2023 markets, it is this: Timeless wisdom best informs timely decisions.

Here’s how Morgan Housel describes the same in his new book, “Same as Ever.”

“The typical attempt to clear up an uncertain future is to gaze further and squint harder—to forecast with more precision, more data, and more intelligence. Far more effective is to do the opposite: Look backward, and be broad. Rather than attempting to figure out little ways the future might change, study the big things the past has never avoided.”

Following are a few timeless tenets that offer timely investment insights for the year ahead.

There’s Never a Good Time to Time the Market

Perhaps most obviously, last year demonstrated how randomly—and rapidly—markets can move. As The Wall Street Journal reported at year-end:

“Almost no one thought 2023 would be a blockbuster year for stocks. They could hardly have been more wrong.”

Another financial journal observed:

“What was supposed to go up went down, or listed sideways, and what was supposed to go down went up — and up and up. The S&P 500 climbed more than 20% and the Nasdaq 100 soared over 50%, the biggest annual gain since the go-go days of the dot-com boom. … ‘I’ve never seen the consensus as wrong as it was in 2023,’ said Andrew Pease, the chief investment strategist at Russell Investments.”

Many financial pundits offered elaborate explanations for the year’s fortunes, and why (in hindsight) their projections were so far off. While their reasons may be accurate, the implication is, were it not for this, that, or the other thing, their forecasts would have been correct.

The problem is, there’s almost always “this, that, or the other thing” going on in this big, busy world. Thus, it really should come as no surprise that routine surprises regularly randomize the market’s next moves.

We’ve known this for years—since at least 1973, when Burton Malkiel published the first edition of “A Random Walk Down Wall Street.” Even after 50 years, Malkiel’s message represents one of the most timeless truths explaining why we don’t try to time market trends.

Beware of Catchy Catchphrases

In 2023, just seven stocks within the S&P 500 Index explained almost two-thirds of the index’s total annual gains. Their striking performance scored them the catchy title, “Magnificent Seven.”

What should we expect for this star lineup in the coming year? Search today’s popular press, and you’ll find timely tips galore on whether to bulk up on more magnificence, or sell while the selling is good. Forecasts hinge on the usual suspects: Whether inflation rises or falls, a recession lands or recedes, technologies advance or retreat, and so on.

Taking a more timeless view, we would suggest being wary of celebrated stocks bearing trendy titles. Chasing after stellar returns with their own nicknames may work for a while. But eventually, one of those “surprises” tends to come along, turning once-hot stocks into cold plays.

Which brings us to our next timeless tenet.

Diversification Is Perennially Prudent

Viewing 2023 up close, there may be a temptation to chase after the market’s recent winning streak, bulking up on more of that which has been so pleasantly surprising of late.

Zooming out, our perspective remains unchanged: Maintain a globally diversified portfolio, tailored for your needs. Treat an allocation to the Magnificent Seven (and the next trend, and the one after that) as one of many “pistons” powering the market’s perennial growth. But pair it with effective diversification, to temper the inevitable upsets that await us in the year(s) ahead.

In this spirit, I wish you a well-diversified investment portfolio in 2024, along with abundant concentrations of health, happiness, and harmonious well-being for you and yours.

 

 

4 Financial Best Practices for Year-End 2023

Scan the financial headlines these days, and you’ll see plenty of potential action items vying for your year-end attention. Some may be particular to 2023. Others are timeless traditions. If your wealth were a garden, which actions would actually deserve your attention? Here are our four favorite items worth tending to as 2024 approaches … plus a thoughtful reflection on how to make the most of the remaining year.  

 

1.     Feed Your Cash Reserves

With basic savings accounts currently offering 5%+ annual interest rates, your fallow cash is finally able to earn a nice little bit while it sits. Sweet! Two thoughts here:

Mind Where You’ve Stashed Your Cash: If your spending money is still sitting in low- or no-interest accounts, consider taking advantage of the attractive rates available in basic money market accounts, or similar savings vehicles such as short-term CDs, or U.S. Series I Saving Bonds (“I Bonds”). Your cash savings typically includes money you intend to spend within the next year or so, as well as your emergency, “rainy day” reserves. (Note: I Bonds require you to hold them for at least a year.)

Put Your Cash in Context: While current rates across many savings accounts are appealing, don’t let this distract you from your greater investment goals. Even at today’s higher rates, your cash reserves are eventually expected to lose their spending power in the face of inflation. Today’s rates don’t eliminate this issue … remember, inflation is also on the high side, so that 5% isn’t as amazing as it may seem. Once you’ve got your cash stashed in those high-interest savings accounts, we believe you’re better off allocating your remaining assets into your investment portfolio—and leaving the dollars there for pursuing your long game.  

 

2.     Prune Your Portfolio

While we don’t advocate using your investment reserves to chase money market rates, there are still plenty of other actions you can take to maintain a tidy portfolio mix. For this, it’s prudent to perform an annual review of how your proverbial garden is growing. Year-end is as good a milestone as any for this activity. For example, you can:

Rebalance: In 2023, relatively strong year-to-date stock returns may warrant rebalancing back to plan, especially if you can do so within your tax-sheltered accounts.

Relocate: With your annual earnings coming into focus, you may wish to shift some of your investments from taxable to tax-sheltered accounts, such as traditional or Roth IRAs, HSAs, and 529 College Savings Plans. For many of these, you have until next April 15, 2024 to make your 2023 contributions. But you don’t have to wait if the assets are available today, and it otherwise makes tax-wise sense.

Revise: As you rebalance, relocate, or add new holdings according to plan, you may also be able to take advantage of the latest science-based ETF solutions.  We’re not necessarily suggesting major overhauls, especially where embedded taxable gains may negate the benefits of a new offering. But as you’re reallocating or adding new assets anyway, it’s worth noting there may be new, potentially improved resources available.

Redirect: Year-end can also be a great time to redirect excess wealth toward personal or charitable giving. Whether directly or through a Donor Advised Fund, you can donate highly appreciated investments out of your taxable accounts and into worthy causes. You stand to reduce current and future taxes, and your recipients get to put the assets to work right away. This can be a slam dunk strategy to avoid an embedded capital gain and get a tax deduction for the full value going to the charity of your choice.  If you have appreciated assets, considering gifting these and holding on to your cash.

 

3.     Train Those Taxes

Speaking of taxes, there are always plenty of ways to manage your current and lifetime tax burdens—especially as your financial numbers and various tax-related deadlines come into focus toward year-end. For example:

RMDs and QCDs: Retirees and IRA inheritors should continue making any obligatory Required Minimum Distributions (RMDs) out of their IRAs and similar tax-sheltered accounts. With the 2022 Secure Act 2.0, the penalty for missing an RMD will no longer exceed 25% of any underpayment, rather than the former 50%. But even 25% is a painful penalty if you miss the December 31 deadline. If you’re charitably inclined, you may prefer to make a year-end Qualified Charitable Distribution (QCD), to offset or potentially eliminate your RMD burden.

Harvesting Losses … and Gains: Depending on market conditions and your own portfolio, there may still be opportunities to perform some tax-loss harvesting in 2023, to offset current or future taxable gains from your account. As long as long-term capital gains rates remain in the relatively low range of 0%–20%, tax-gain harvesting might be of interest as well. Work with your tax-planning team to determine what makes sense for you.

Keeping an Eye on the 2025 Sunset: Nobody can predict what the future holds. But if Congress does not act, a number of tax-friendly 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act provisions are set to sunset on December 31, 2025. If they do, we might experience higher ordinary income and capital gains tax rates after that. Let’s be clear: A lot could change before then, so we’re not necessarily suggesting you shape all your plans around this one potential future. However, if it’s in your overall best interests to engage in various taxable transactions anyway, 2023 may be a relatively tax-friendly year in which to complete them. Examples include doing a Roth conversion, harvesting long-term capital gains, taking extra retirement plan withdrawals, exercising taxable stock options, gifting to loved ones, and more.

 

4.     Weed Out Your To-Do List

I love this one…it is at the top of my improvement goals.  Doing less instead of staying busy with more.  This year, we’re intentionally keeping our list of year-end financial best practices on the short side. Not for lack of ideas, mind you; there are plenty more we could cover.

But consider these words of wisdom from Atomic Habits author James Clear:

“Instead of asking yourself, ‘What should I do first?’ Try asking, ‘What should I neglect first?’ Trim, edit, cull. Make space for better performance.”

— JamesClear.com

 

Let’s combine Clear’s tip with sentiments from a Farnam Street piece, “How to Think Better.” Here, a Stanford University study has suggested that multitasking may not only make it harder for us to do our best thinking, it may impair our efforts. 

“The best way to improve your ability to think is to spend large chunks of time thinking. … Good decision-makers understand a simple truth: you can’t make good decisions without good thinking, and good thinking requires time.”

— Farnam Street

 

In short, how do you really want to spend the rest of your year? Instead of trying to tackle everything at once, why not pick your favorite, most applicable best practice out of our short list of favorites? Take the time to think it through. Maybe save the rest for some other time.

Quarterly Letter to Clients

The first three months of the year would not be described as boring by any stretch of the imagination.  With the war in Ukraine continuing to create global uncertainty and the government-assisted closing of two of the largest regional banks in history, there is plenty to capture our short-term focus.  But even with these and other events, many stock indexes are up since early January and bond prices have seen some recovery as interest rate pressure has eased a bit. The point is that sometimes investment returns can tell a different story than does the current headlines.

However, whether the numbers are up or down in any given year, we caution against letting them alter your mood, or as importantly, your portfolio mix. Because, when it comes to future expected returns, short term performance is among the least significant determinants available.

Thumbs Down…Thumbs Up

In the thumbs-down category, U.S. stock market indexes1  turned in annual lows not seen since 2008, with most of the heaviest big tech stocks2 taking a bath. Bonds fared no better, as the U.S. Federal
Reserve raised rates to tamp down inflation. The U.K.’s economic policies3 resulted in Liz Truss becoming its shortest-tenured prime minister ever, while Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and China’s continued COVID woes kept the global economy in a tailspin. Cryptocurrency exchanges like FTX4… well, you know what happened there.

On the plus side, inflation has appeared to be easing slightly, and so far, a recession has yet to materialize. A globally diversified, value-tilted strategy5 has helped protect against some (certainly
not all) of the worst returns. An 8.7% Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA)6 for Social Security recipients has helped ease some of the spending sting, as should some of the provisions within the newly enacted SECURE 2.0 Act of 2022.

Recency Bias

Now, how much of this did you see coming last January? Given the unique blend of social, political, and economic news that defined the year, it’s unlikely anything but blind luck could have led to accurate
expectations at the outset.

 In fact, even if you believe you knew we were in for trouble back then, it’s entirely possible you are altering reality, thanks to recency and hindsight bias. The Wall Street Journal’s Jason Zweig7 ran an experiment to demonstrate how our memories can deceive us like that. Last January, he asked readers to send in their market predictions for 2022. Then, toward year-end, he asked them to recall their predictions (without peeking). The conclusion: “[Respondents] remembered being much less bullish than they had been in real time.”

In other words, just after most markets had experienced a banner year of high returns in 2021, many people were predicting more of the same. Then, the reality of a demoralizing year rewrote their memories; they subconsciously overlaid their original optimism with today’s pessimism.

What have we learned?

Where does this leave us? Clearly, there are better ways to prepare for the future than being influenced by current market conditions, and how we’re feeling about them today. Instead, everything we cannot yet know will shape near-term market returns, while everything we’ve learned from decades of disciplined investing should shape our long-range investment plans. 

In other words, stay informed but be careful to not be swayed into a reactive decision. Keep your long-term lenses on and your future self will thank you for it.
 

As we head into a new quarter, always know that we are here to help and are grateful for your
continued trust.

Josh

 

Quarterly Letter to Clients

Well, we made it to 2021 so how are you feeling?  The start of a new year can breed hope for new possibilities.  Even though 2020 was oppressive to most in so many ways, I do think we can still hold hope for the new year.  I have never been one to focus on New Year’s resolutions as they always felt like a recipe for disappointment (I know that is not the case for everyone, though).  What I am striving for this year is not new resolutions, but rather strengthening routines.  Routines feel more in my control, and if 2020 taught anything, it is to control what we can control.  One of these areas for me is to practice gratitude.  I have begun by thinking of 3 things I am grateful for each night before I go to sleep.  It is refreshing and encouraging to think on these things.  When we talk later this year, feel free to check on my progress with this.  This is just one small example, and I am sure that you have others that jump to your mind.  Let me encourage you to pursue practices like this for the sake of your own mental health in 2021.

Speaking of control…

You likely have heard us say in the past that market performance is not an area that any of us have control.  Because of this, it is wasted energy to focus and worry about market movements.  You should spend that energy doing things you can control: spend less than what you make, avoid debt, build cash reserves, plan your generosity and plan your future – practical principals that have an outsized impact on your life.

Small, quiet acts

Whether the temptation is to abandon a free-falling market (like the one we encountered less than a year ago), or chase after winning streaks, an investor’s best move remains the same.  Concentrated bets on hot hands generate erratic outcomes, which makes them far closer to being dicey gambles than sturdy investments.  Trust instead in the durability of your carefully planned investment portfolio. Focus instead on small, quiet acts.  That is what we are here for, for example, to:  
  • – Remind you that your globally diversified portfolio already holds an appropriate allocation to Tesla stock (which may be a lot, a little, or none, depending on your financial goals.
 
  • – Guide you in rebalancing your portfolio if recent gains have overexposed it to market risks.
 
  • – Help you interpret the 5,600 pages of the newly passed Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2021, so you can manage your next financial moves accordingly.
 
  • – Assess potential ramifications of the Biden tax proposals and advise you on any additional defensive tax planning that may be warranted for you in the years ahead.
 
  •  -Remain by your side as you encounter whatever other challenges and opportunities 2021 has in store for you and your family.
  These are not loud acts that you will read about in the paper, but they are the stuff financial dreams are made of.  2021 will be interesting to say the least, but let’s hold onto the hope and possibility that a new year brings.  Stay healthy, stay grateful and know that we are here to help.   Josh, Mike, Matt and Sandra