Is the Debt Ceiling Bringing You Down?

What does the U.S. debt ceiling debate really means for you? I am getting this question regularly, which means it is probably on the minds of many more folks.  As potential threats loom large, we’re seeing articles in abundance, explaining where we’re at, how we got here, and what to expect next.

We wouldn’t be human if we didn’t share in your frustration over the maddening lack of resolution to date. It’s stressful to watch huge, consequential events unfolding, over which we have no control. And who needs more stress in their life?

Which is why we encourage you to think of your investments as a bright spot of relief in an otherwise unmanageable world. In the face of everything we cannot control, the one place you can call your own shots is within your well-structured, globally diversified investment portfolio.

And here’s more good news: As an investor, you don’t really need to know that much about the real-time details of the debt ceiling negotiations. Instead, as with any other breaking news, a healthy degree of arm’s length disinterest will likely serve you best, especially if you might otherwise respond to the current fever pitch of news that’s news because it’s in the news.

To illustrate, let’s look behind three different doors to consider your most advisable investment strategy under various outcomes.


Door #1: Opportunistic Agreement

With history as our guide, it is perhaps most reasonable to expect today’s political brinksmanship-as-usual will lead to some form of resolution, probably arriving at the last possible moment. This is exactly how the debt ceiling debate has played out on multiple occasions, with each side of the isle using it as an opportunity to score new political points, and there is no reason to think this time will be any different.  Then what? Most likely, the “fix” will be partial and imperfect, and the hand-wringing will continue apace over the next challenges inherent in the latest patch.  The self-preserving nature of the Congressional representative role seems to always come through to make sure the economy doesn’t screech to a halt.  The talking points might shift, but markets will remain as volatile and unpredictable as ever. In this most likely scenario, we would advise …

Staying invested in your carefully constructed, globally diversified investment portfolio, structured for your personal financial goals and risk tolerances.


Door #2: Meltdown

What if negotiations in Washington fail? What if we experience U.S. credit rating downgrades, debt defaults, and unpaid Social Security benefits (to name a few of the uglier possibilities)? In a worst-case scenario, the U.S. dollar could lose its global currency status, a position it’s held since before most of us were born. What then?

If a worse- or worst-case scenario occurs, our marvelously efficient markets would once again respond by pricing in the good, bad, and ugly news well before we can successfully trade on it. Global diversification would be as important, if not more critical. Selling in a panic as markets adjust to the worsening news would remain as ill-advised as ever. In other words, your advisable course would remain …

Staying invested in your carefully constructed, globally diversified investment portfolio, structured for your personal financial goals and risk tolerances.


Door #3: Proactive, Compromising Agreement

Last, and probably least likely, what if Washington defies our doubts, and achieves a happy and timely debt ceiling resolution, with little to no harm done? Hey, anything is possible. In this best-case scenario, the breaking news would be better than most of us expect, so markets would likely respond at least briefly with better-than-expected returns, rewarding us for staying put. At the same time, just in case the next bit of news were to disappoint, or even be less exciting than expected, we’d want to temper any concentrated market exposures by, you guessed it …

Staying invested in your carefully constructed, globally diversified investment portfolio, structured for your personal financial goals and risk tolerances.

This is by no means a perfect hedge against black swan events, but it’s a good start and would allow for some long-term benefits by taking advantage of stocks in decline through strategic rebalancing.  We would be happy to offer more insights and analysis about the debt ceiling if you are interested in learning more. We’re also here to review your portfolio mix any time your personal circumstances may warrant a change. Otherwise, guess what we would advise you to do while the debt crisis continues? If you’re not sure, please give us a call. We always enjoy hearing from you!

Fuqua Finance Forum – April 10th, 2019

Photos (left) Laurinda & Matt and (right) Ruben, Oriana, Matt, Laurinda, Monique, & Francisco

Matt Miner

April 10th, 2019

Whoa!  Sitting over here at WaDuke thinking about the excellent conversation we had together this morning. Such a delight to be with y’all, with Laurinda, and with Professor Dyreng.  Huge thanks to BLMBAO for this opportunity.

Thanks to all the folks who wanted to chat afterward.  I am honored that our time together was helpful to you.

Thanks to the several of you who asked about copies of the slides.  They are posted below for you to review, anytime.

Wishing you every success with life and money,

Matt Miner

2019.04.10 Matt Miner Slides

Some additional reference material below:

Recent interview on Radical Personal Finance podcast about my career transition to planning.

Interview on Masters of Money podcast

Blogs posts I referenced yesterday:

Renting versus owning – Afford Anything

The Shockingly Simple Math – Mr Money Mustache

Book recommendations:

Millionaire Next Door by Stanley is always top of the heap. The idea is that wealth is about habits.

Total Money Makeover by Ramsey is the best motivation book (“why”) and the best budgeting book

The Only Investment Guide You’ll Ever Need by Chris Tobias is terrific on both PF and investing topics

Personal Finance for Dummies by Tyson is comprehensive and accessible.

If you Can by Bernstein is a great DIY resource.

Your Money or your Life, by Dominguez and Robbins, is the frugality book.  Frugality: you can control your spending and achieve a high savings rate on any income.

The Automatic Millionaire by Bach

Richest Man in Babylon by Clason – seminal in this genre

The Wealthy Barber by Chilton – story based and easy PF content

Equifax Security Breach, Part II

I initially wrote about my take on the Equifax Security Breach about a month ago.  In that time since, the news continues to come out about just how pervasive this hack was (and maybe continues to be).  We were already on high alert for instances of identity theft. But the source, scope, and what seems like a justified feeling of betrayal associated with this particular breach have ushered in a new era of cybersecurity. There was before the Equifax security breach; now there’s after.

What does “after” look like, and how can we help you navigate it?  Unfortunately, there is no one-size-fits-all regimen, but here are some of the most frequently cited actions we’ve seen, along with our commentary on them.  Some of these were mentioned in my first post (repetition never hurts) but I have added some new thoughts as well.

What should you do right now?

  1. Check your credit reports using annualcreditreport.com. Keeping an eye on your credit reports has long been a best practice, and should continue to be, today more than ever. Be sure to only use annualcreditreport.com. As the website says, it is the only provider authorized by Federal law to provide you with the free annual reports that already are rightfully yours. Also, so you can obtain a free credit report more than annually, consider staggering the three primary agencies’ reports, selecting one to review every four months.
  2. File your tax returns as early as you’re able. This might sound strange considering that we are only a few days away from the extension deadline; however, January 1st, 2018 will be here before we know it. Plan to have your tax information organized and ready to go to your CPA.  Filing early minimizes the opportunity for an identity thief to file a bogus return on your behalf.
    This may not be practical for some of you, but the bottom line…if you can file earlier than later, do so.
  3. Consider placing a fraud alert or a freeze on your credit. Deciding which (if either) of these actions makes sense for you depends on your personal circumstances. For example, if you’re frequently applying for credit, placing a freeze may be impractical. On the other hand, if you have been a victim of identity theft, an alert might not suffice. In this instance, it’s worth reading through the advantages and disadvantages before determining your next steps. We’re here for you as well, to serve as an additional sounding board.
  4. Consider enrolling in a credit monitoring service. Equifax has offered to provide a year of free credit monitoring and identity theft protection via TrustedID Premier. We’ve seen mixed reviews on whether it makes sense to accept Equifax’s offer. First, there’s the whole trust issue raised by the recent breach. Plus, identity thieves have nearly endless patience, so one year of monitoring is only the beginning. That said, other independent services can be costly (especially if you’ve got an entire family to cover), and they may not ultimately offer much that you cannot do on your own if you so choose. It comes down to a cost/benefit analysis unique to you.
  5. Regularly change the passwords and PINs on your financial accounts. Like regularly monitoring your credit reports, periodically changing your financial account login information has been and remains a best practice. Quarterly or at least twice a year makes good sense to us.

Information fatigue is the enemy of action

We’ve seen other tips and pointers besides these, some of which may be advisable as well. To avoid informational overload, here are three guiding lights:

  • Pace yourself. As with any seemingly insurmountable challenge, it may be best to take things one step at a time, lest you lock up and end up doing nothing at all.
  • Patiently prevail. Approach your security as an ongoing process rather than a quick fix. After determining which actions make sense for you, set up a routine and a schedule for implementing them. Write down your plans, and then follow them.
  • Partner with us. We won’t go into sensitive specifics here but, as financial advisors, we have long been taking strong measures at our end to protect against hackers and identity thieves. That said, no system is impregnable. The more aggressively we join forces to thwart cybercriminals, the more likely we will ultimately prevail.

So, how can we help you moving forward? If you’d like to consult with us as you think through some of the points we’ve touched on above, we welcome the conversation. We also ask you to be responsive when we reach out to you with security-related questions or suggestions. For example, earlier this year, we produced a quick-reference and more detailed overview, “Avoiding Financial Scams and Identity Theft Slams,” filled with perennial information and best practices. We’d be delighted to share those materials with you so just ask.

As this wise educator observed in reflecting on the Equifax breach, “Security isn’t a product. It’s a process.” Just as sensible investing involves taking appropriate near-term steps in the context of an ongoing, personalized plan, so too do we find it increasingly imperative to respond to this and future cyberattacks with upfront planning, well-reasoned action and continued best practices. Let us know how else we can assist with that!

 

Why Do We Behave Badly When it Comes to Money?

You are standing on the edge of a cliff and the only thing that separates you from a 1000 foot fall are the rocks you are standing on and a small branch sticking out of rocks, hanging perilously over the abyss.  However, you have been told that if you could just get out to the end of that branch, the view becomes amazing and it would change your life.  At your core, you know a ‘view’ can’t change your life.  But what if they are right?  What should do?  There is not a mentally sound person alive that would not agree that the right thing to do would be to back away from the cliff’s edge.  We are a species that values survival, so this makes sense.  But when it comes to money and money decisions, we do this over and over and over again.

I am not referring to just investment decisions, although these are well documented.  Karl Richards wrote a fantastic book called The Behavior Gap where he discusses, among other things, how it is that the average mutual fund performance is between 2-4% per year higher than the average performance of the investors…in that same fund.  In short, it is investors behaving badly by buying high and selling low.  I will guarantee that every one of those investors got in the game with the goal of buying low and selling high, so why did the majority of them do just the opposite?  This is the behavior gap, and Karl will explain it much better than I will, so read his book.

I am also referring to our decisions around other areas of finance such as cash flow, debt and generosity.  I think most people know what they should be doing with these areas of finance, but very few actually execute this well.

Cash flow is pretty straight forward.  The #1 principal when it comes to money is ‘Spend less than you make.’  Absolutely no other part of your finances will work as well as they should if you do not have this under control.  You cannot plan and save for the future if you are not staying solvent today.  Heck, you won’t be able to plan for tomorrow.  This is critical and is a lesson I have had to learn the hard way.

Debt flows right out of cash flow.  Show me a person that is spending more than they make, eventually, we will be discussing their debt problem.  The problem with debt is that you are writing checks off of your future with no assurances that the money will be there to pay for it.  It may work out ok for you, but then again, it may not, and do you really want to live with that uncertainty?  Make no mistake, there are better and worse uses of debt, but the principal of debt is to be careful.  The old Proverb states that, “The debtor becomes slave to the lender.”  If you have ever been in an extreme amount of debt, you understand what it means to be indentured to that debt.

Generosity is something we should all practice on a daily basis to as many people that intersect our life.  This is life at its fullest.  Of course there are many more ways to be generous and kind to someone other than using your money.  However, there is also no question that the thoughtful and strategic engagement of money with need can changes lives and impact people for generations to come.  I think we are all wired to want to help.  It is an incredible feeling to know that your efforts, thoughtfulness, and yes, money, have made an impact on someone.  It will change their day, but I am certain it will change your day.  But you can’t even get here if you have misbehaved so badly in other areas of your financial life.  We all know this at our core, and yet we knowingly sabotage our desire to

I don’t think anyone does this on purpose, but this is what happens when the behavior gap is compounded exponentially.  It is never just about what we did to miss out on returns this year or what bad decision we made today to live beyond our means.  These decisions are never made in a vacuum and they always compound into a much bigger problem if a course correction is not made.