I am getting tons of questions right now (and every 4 years historically) about what does the election cycle mean for my investments and what should we do to ‘protect’ ourselves. These are legitimate questions coming from an honest place of concern about important matters. My answer has been pretty consistent now for over 20 years, but I could not write this any better, so I’m going to leave this to an expert. This is a must read from Dr. Daniel Crosby, Chief Behavioral Officer with Orion. He is a psychologist and behavioral finance expert with a New York Times best seller.
As the 2024 election approaches, the political noise is deafening. Campaigns are in full swing, pundits are making predictions, and market analysts are offering endless advice on how to manage your investments. However, the best strategy for your portfolio during this tumultuous time might surprise you: do nothing.
In times of great political and economic uncertainty, the instinct to take action can be overwhelming. This tendency, known by shrinks like me as “action bias,” is the inclination to favor action over inaction, especially when the stakes are high. It’s a concept that’s particularly relevant in the world of investing.
Consider the world of soccer, where goalkeepers, faced with penalty kicks, often dive dramatically to the left or right. A group of researchers examined 311 penalty kicks and found that goalies dove to the left or right 94% of the time. However, the kicks were distributed roughly equally: one-third to the left, one-third to the right, and one-third down the middle. Goalkeepers who stayed in the center had a 60% chance of stopping the ball, far greater than the odds when diving left or right.
So why do goalkeepers choose dramatic dives over the more effective strategy of staying centered? When we put ourselves in the shoes (or cleats) of the goalie, especially in high-stakes situations, the reason becomes clear. When the game and national pride are on the line, goalies want to appear as though they are giving a heroic effort. Staying centered can look like complacency, even though it’s statistically the best choice. This same dynamic applies to investors who, in times of market distress, feel compelled to act, even when inaction would serve them better.
When Vanguard examined the performance of accounts that had made no changes versus those that had made tweaks, they found that the “no change” condition handily outperformed the tinkerers. Meir Statman cites research from Sweden showing that the heaviest traders lose 4 percent of their account value each year to trading costs and poor timing and these results are consistent across the globe. Across 19 major stock exchanges, investors who made frequent changes trailed buy-and-hold investors by 1.5 percentage points per year.
Perhaps the best-known study on the damaging effects of action bias also provides insight into gender-linked tendencies in trading behavior. Terrance Odean and Brad Barber, two of the fathers of behavioral finance, looked at the individual accounts of a large discount broker and found something that surprised them at the time.
The men in the study traded 45 percent more than the women, with single men out-trading their female counterparts by an incredible 67 percent. Barber and Odean attribute this greater activity to overconfidence, but whatever its psychological roots, it consistently degraded returns. As a result of overactivity, the average man in the study underperformed the average woman by 1.4 percentage points per year. Worse still, single men lagged single women by 2.3 percent – an incredible drag when compounded over an investment lifetime.
The tendency of women to outperform is not only seen in retail investors, however. Female hedge fund managers have consistently and soundly thumped their male colleagues, owing largely to the patience discussed above. As LouAnn Lofton of the Motley Fool reports, “…funds managed by women have, since inception, returned an average 9.06 percent, compared to just 5.82 percent averaged by a weighted index of other hedge funds. As if that outperformance weren’t impressive enough, the group also found that during the financial panic of 2008, these women-managed funds weren’t hurt nearly as severely as the rest of the hedge fund universe, with the funds dropping 9.61 percent compared to the 19.03 percent suffered by other funds.”
As the 2024 election unfolds, resist the urge to make dramatic changes to your portfolio. Remember, sometimes the best action is inaction. By staying the course and avoiding the pitfalls of action bias, you can protect and grow your wealth, regardless of the political landscape.
Source: The Laws of Wealth, Crosby
